IMAGI-NATIONS. PART 46

 THE STRATEGIC SITUATION AFTER THE SECOND SINO-UNION WAR.

In Spring of 1890 the UNION Army High Command put forward a radical proposal to the President of the UNION and his Cabinet. The proposition was to use the port of Miami as a base and ship the bulk of the UNION army to Bombay in India and from there to launch an invasion of China. From the Indian border to Peking and Shanghai, the major manufacturing cities of China, was around 1000 miles, considerably less than the 6000 miles from the UNION's border with China to those cities. The intention of the invasion would be to destroy  Chinese arms production for at least a generation and destroy as much as possible of  the Chinese army.

The initial reaction of the President and his senior colleagues was to see the plan as ridiculous. However they agreed to a presentation by the Army commander and his senior officers. In that presentation the Cabinet was reminded that India was a British colony and the British and Indian governments had experienced many years of difficulties with China along the common border. Northern India was not heavily populated and the Chinese had long believed that the border should be pushed south to give China more land for their ever growing population. This had resulted in several Chinese incursions into Indian territory and a number of skirmishes between the opposing militaries. It was the opinion of the UNION army's senior officers that the British and Indian governments could be favorably disposed to assisting the UNION in launching an invasion if only to relieve for many years the pressure on their northern border.

The army presentation then moved to reiterating that The Second Sino-Union war had been a close run thing and the Chinese army had proven to have become very formidable. It was inconceivable that China would not seek to attack the UNION in the future just as soon as they felt strong enough, therefore the UNION must launch a preemptive strike to destroy the growing threat that China presented. Invasion from the UNION was impractical given the distances involved but logistically an invasion via India was possible. Indeed the Army command suggested the British might be especially supportive because it was only by using the British merchant fleet that the transport to and ongoing supply of the UNION army in India could be achieved and that would be very profitable for the British.

The presentation then moved to a general discussion of the strategic situation in Tian. Following the invasion of Iran some few years before the Arab countries were now fully focused on resolving the future government of their countries following the rise to power of military officers rather than the religious leaders who prevailed prior to the war. It was expected that this internal conflict would continue for many years which meant there was no threat towards Mexico for the foreseeable future. 

Following the defeat of Germany and Russia earlier in the year the Russians were not considered to be a threat as they had been pushed out of Ukraine and the bridges over the Volga river had been destroyed. UNION and Ukrainian troops guarded the river and could easily foil any bridge building effort although given the recent strategic thinking of Russia, it was highly unlikely they would ever consider attacking the UNION without an ally. That ally had previously been Germany but following the UNION annexation of the Rhineland and destruction of the bridges over the Rhine any future threat from Germany was impractical and therefore considered very low risk indeed.

Overall the only realistic threat to the UNION for the foreseeable future came from China therefore it would be strategically prudent to incur the risks of an invasion of China from India if the British and Indian governments agreed. It was understood that much construction work would be needed not only in Miami but certainly in Bombay and from there to the Chinese border to support an invasion but again such work would be very profitable for Britain and India. After much debate the President agreed the plan was practical and strategically sensible and it was resolved that the British should be approached informally to understand the likely reaction to such an extraordinary proposition.

As expected the initial British reaction was astonishment but after some discussion and consideration they began to appreciate the concept was actually attractive. The whole enterprise would be very profitable to the British, would provide huge investment in India and would entail little actual risk for the British. Whatever the outcome of the actual invasion, the Chinese would be seriously weakened and the threat to India would diminish for some time. In addition, supporting the UNION would cement ties with Britain and perhaps provide for some UNION military support against China if required at some later date.

In the Spring of 1891 a secret treaty was signed between the UNION, British and Indian governments to allow the UNION to launch an invasion of China from India and for all parties to cooperatively construct the logistical facilities necessary to support such an operation. A special clause also committed the British to provide all the shipping necessary to transport and maintain a UNION army in India of up to 800,000 troops for a period of not less than five years. Detailed planning for the expedition could now commence.

FOOTNOTE:  Readers should remember that the timeline of Tian is 130 years behind Earth. Therefore the year 1891 in Tian is 2021 on Earth. Future published articles will therefore be more or less in real time rather than historical time and will likely relate the events of the previous month(s). I hope this is understandable.